Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 on Friday. The trigger was the August nonfarm payrolls report, which landed at nearly three times the consensus estimate and forced traders to rebuild their Federal Reserve rate-hike models from scratch. Risk assets across crypto and equities sold off on contact.
The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Consensus had sat near 53,000 to 56,000, per Dow Jones polling. Unemployment held at 4.1%, right on expectations. June and July payrolls were revised higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) had already printed a four-month high of $82,240 before the data crossed wires. Within minutes of the release, it was down more than 2%. Price slid from $81,300 to local lows around $78,600 and clawed back to $79,500, according to Cointelegraph. Bitcoin Magazine pegged the 24-hour drop at over 1%, with a low of $78,706 and the token trading near $79,764.
That payrolls beat reshaped rate expectations fast. Traders repriced the odds of a hike at the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. CME FedWatch showed hike probability climbing to 58%, up from 49.4% just a day earlier, per Decrypt. Polymarket told a different story. After Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s Thursday remarks, the prediction market swung to 60% pause and 40% hike. The jobs print dragged it back to 50/50, Cointelegraph reported.
Equities followed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 226 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite, oddly, ticked up 0.1%. Treasury yields climbed across the curve. The two-year note touched its highest level since January 2025. Gold sank to a session low of $4,380 an ounce.
This jobs print landed in a market already on edge. Thursday’s short squeeze had erased more than $415 million in bearish bets and shoved Bitcoin above $82,000. Most of those gains evaporated by Friday afternoon.
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to turn up the heat on the central bank. “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart — BE PATIOTS for a change,” he wrote, arguing that high rates put the US at an unfair disadvantage. He followed up: “Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates.”
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has offered little in the way of forward guidance, and the committee carries potential dissenters. Warsh said last week he had “more work to do” to fight inflation, Bitcoin Magazine noted. Waller struck a different tone Thursday, saying he would be “inclined to support” holding rates steady. A hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting would be the first under serious consideration since the tightening cycle that ended in July 2023.
The repricing did not wipe out demand entirely. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $730.8 million in net inflows. Total crypto market cap held near $2.67 trillion, up 0.11% on the day. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index sat at 75, firmly in “greed” territory. The Altcoin Season Index read 38, tilting the field toward Bitcoin over altcoins.
Then there is the debt backdrop. The Treasury Department said it would more than double government debt repurchases. US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold sits at a six-year high, driven by debasement concerns.
Bitcoin opened September near $77,500. The token has closed lower in eight of the last 13 Septembers.
The next payrolls report, covering September, is due October 2.
